The Micron Rollercoaster: Are We Headed for Another Dip?
Alright, let's talk Micron (MU). Three years, up 319%. Sounds amazing, right? Like printing money. But before you start mortgaging the house to buy shares, let's pump the brakes for a sec. Because if there's one thing I've learned about the tech sector, it's that what goes up must eventually... well, you know.
And check this out: November 20th, 2025, Micron's stock down 10.87%. A day like that wipes the smile right off your face. All-time high just days before? Classic. It's like they want to give you whiplash. This ain't a smooth ride; it's a rollercoaster designed by sadists.
The AI Hype Machine and Memory Chips
So, what's driving this insanity? AI, ofcourse. Everyone and their grandma is building an AI system, and all those systems need memory chips. Hence, the supposed shortage. Samsung's jacking up their chip prices by 60% in two months. Sixty percent! I mean, are they serious? It is serious, and Hynix and Micron will likely follow suit. Price fixing, anyone? Just kidding... mostly.
But here's where my spidey-sense starts tingling. Micron's valued at 7.0 times trailing sales. Their 5-year average? 3.9. That's a massive disconnect. Are we really supposed to believe this level of growth is sustainable? Look, I get the AI boom, but the memory market is cyclical. Always has been, always will be. Upturns related to smartphones, SaaS, work-from-home... it's a pattern.
History Doesn't Repeat, But It Rhymes
And those downturns? Market saturation, oversized manufacturing upgrades, economic jitters. Sound familiar? Micron's seen this movie before. Big gains in 2013-2014, then a 60% drawdown in 2015. Anyone remember that? No? Figures. We all have goldfish brains these days.
The author of the source material held Micron since 2011, saw gains of 2,833%. Good for them. They even considered taking profits a couple of times but held on. Now they're thinking about cashing out a "small slice." Translation: "I'm nervous as hell, but I don't want to admit it." I'm not judging, because I would be too.
Look, I'm not saying Micron's going to zero. They're a major player, competing with Samsung and Hynix. But let's be real: This feels frothy. Way too frothy. Are we at peak hype? Maybe. Am I going to short the stock? Nah, I'm not that crazy. But I sure as hell wouldn't be loading up the truck right now.
Time to Cash Out and Run?
Honestly, this whole situation smells like 2000 all over again. Overvalued companies, irrational exuberance, and everyone convinced that this time it's different. It never is.